RADIO’S 2020 VISION – What drove the last, and will define the next, ten years?
“Visibility is cloudy” sounds like a weather observation, but it’s a favorite phrase of CFO’s and analysts when the future of their company or industry is unclear. Hindsight, of course, is always 20/20, and given that that’s the name of the year that ends this decade we thought we’d take a look at the trends and events that shaped radio’s last ten years - and those that are likely to influence the next ten.
A lot happened in the last decade. In 2009, for example, Instagram, Snapchat, iPads and Impossible Burgers didn’t exist, “vaping” wasn’t a thing, and recreational pot was legal exactly nowhere. Here are a few of the larger currents that helped carve radio’s trajectory during that time:
- The advertising industry continued its love affair with digital
- Radio finally started getting semi-serious about earning back some of the revenue that left traditional media for online advertising.
- Bankruptcy, mergers, and/or sales at Cumulus, Cox, iHeart, CBS/Entercom.
- Translators inflated the number of signals available in most markets.
- Voice-tracking and syndication continued to spread.
- Next Radio failed, leaving radio still with little to no mobile device penetration.
- Headset listening rocketed, leaving significant amounts of radio listening unmeasured (our 2017 What Women Want study may have been the first public measurement of the loss).
- The first localized or zoned on-air ads were broadcast.
- Live reads and endorsements came back into demand bigger than ever.
- Pop music faltered.
- Smart speakers began creating more in-home opportunities for radio - and its competitors.
- Podcasts, DVRs, and streaming video services made on-demand entertainment ubiquitous.
- Pandora, Spotify, and Netflix helped commercials seem even more of an interruption.
- Audio comes into fashion for national ad buyers.
- And recently we’ve seen the infatuation with digital advertising wane a bit, with a more realistic view of its capabilities and limitations starting to take hold.
Here are a baker’s dozen trends that will radio will need to navigate over the next five to ten years:
- Radio’s attribution efforts will contribute to retaining ad share.
- “Audio” will continue to grow, bringing more dollars but more competition.
- The largest companies’ platform advantages in podcasting will increase, but smaller broadcasters will begin to figure out “local podcasting.”
- Radio will continue to get smarter digitally, while newspapers’ digital losses will increase.
- Younger listeners will increasingly cite radio as irrelevant unless we serve them better.
- And those younger Generation Zs – already the largest consumer bloc in the U.S. – will start aging into the 25-54 demo.
- Radio will begin selling the value of its 55+ listeners.
- Personalities will become more and more important, even as we continue to choke off entry points into the industry.
- Two trends will shake radio’s hold on in-car listening: podcasts and autonomous autos.
- Music will continue to cycle, bringing stronger pop music and mainstream country.
- Radio’s biggest problem will continue to be its image in the ad industry, including agency and retailers whose perception of radio usage is out of synch with actual consumers, while…
- Radio’s reduced external advertising feeds the “not vital, not top of mind” perception.
- And, inevitably, another periodic recession will roll around, bringing both opportunity and threat to local radio.
Virtually everything on that “next ten years” list is either an advantage for radio or a simultaneous opportunity/threat whose outcome depends primarily on how radio chooses to respond. Thus, the future is what we as an industry make it. Beginning in early January we will post a series of blogs addressing how radio might capitalize on these trends.
‘Til then, here’s hoping you and yours have a terrific, joyful holiday season! And let us know if you have comments or other future factors to add to the list: